October 14, (THEWILL) - Sub-Saharan Africa's economic activity is expected to slow significantly in 2022 and remain relatively modest in 2023. This column looks to sub-Saharan Africa, a region where 'fiscal dominance' has long been widespread, for useful insights into this debate. This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Inflation Rate. We have people dying on our doorstep today. Annual food price inflation in sub-Saharan Africa has stood at over 10% since the second half of 2021 and the IMF's new economic forecasts this week revised up its regional inflation projection by 2 percentage points to 8.7% for this year. This note discusses three instrumentsmobile money, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and cryptocurrency. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Median inflation is expected to start at a low level (5.3 percent) in 2022 and edge down gradually to 4.8 percent in FIGURE 1.24: Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2024f (median) 2023 . Volatile oil prices have led to procyclical fiscal policies and slower economic growth in sub-Saharan African oil exporting countries while the green energy transition presents a new challenge. One of the most urgent issues confronting the region is the need to tackle decade-high levels ofinflationwhich are devastating incomes and food securitywhile also supporting growth. 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Inflation is rising around the world. Rising food and energy prices are impacting the regions most vulnerable, and public debt and inflation are at levels not seen in decades. The question remains: who is the doing the lending? Sub-Saharan Africa is witnessing a rapid development of digital currencies, and policymakers are weighing the benefits and risks of using these products to deliver financial services. As we near the end of 2021, we take this opportunity to lay out the five key themes that will shape the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2022. However, studies on how inflation mediates the impact of FD on EG produce inconclusive findings. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. The UCT Brewing Team from the Department of Chemical Engineering has brought the Intervarsity Brewing Cup back to UCT. While the economic recovery is projected to accelerate in 2023 to about 4 percent over the medium term, this pace is not enough to make up for lost ground from the pandemic. Most of the region is projected to grow faster and have lower inflation in 2022 than other regions. How much should you save, and how much should you spend? Meanwhile, an assessment of Ghana's debt sustainability is ongoing, Selassie said in the press conference, after the West African country requested help from the fund amid soaring inflation and a tumbling currency. Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 0.66% in . Company updates Fixed Income Equities Real Estate Focus of the Week . So warned the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it launched its October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook Report for Sub-Saharan Africa at UCT's School of Economics - an honour to the school which plays a key role in the region, drawing some of the brightest economic minds on the continent, said director, Associate Professor Reza Daniels . The below table shows the IMFs GDP growth projections for each sub-Saharan African country: The regions recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic has been sharply interrupted, according to the IMF. While significant disparities exist across nations, the region's median inflation rate surged to about 9 per cent in August. A downturn in advanced economies and emerging markets, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity prices, have undermined last year's gains. Inflation in sub-Saharan Africa has risen significantly in the past two years. Within this challenging environment, policymakers must confront immediate socioeconomic crises as they arise, while also endeavoring to reduce vulnerabilities to future shocks, building resilience. The rate is estimated to decrease although it will remain high in the. Ethiopia, Zambia and Chad, meanwhile, had long been seeking to restructure their debts under the G20 Common Framework initiative established in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that central bank financing of government does . Most Recent Value Sub-Saharan Africa 2021 5.3 Sub-Saharan Africa Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value Angola 2019 17.1 Benin 2021 1.7 Botswana 2021 7.2 Burkina Faso 2021 3.7 Burundi 2021 8.4 Cabo Verde 2021 1.9 Cameroon 2021 2.3 Central African Republic 2021 4.3 Chad 2021 -0.8 Comoros 2013 -4.3 Congo, Dem. The Democratic Republic of the Congo too is benefitting from high commodity prices, while others are enjoying a rebound in tourism, but some, such as Malawi, are in a fragile position. But growth in 2022 is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks. Please view the republishing articles page for more information. An average inflation threshold of about 5% is established, below which a positive impact on financial development is found. The international fund. Monetary authorities also find themselves facing an increasingly delicate trade-off: raising rates to keep inflation in check will risk choking off credit for investment, depressing economic activity, and reducing incomes. Growth is expected to slow this year by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6%, as a worldwide slowdown and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into the region. Food accounts for roughly 40 percent of the region's consumption basketa measure of goods and services used to measure consumer price index (CPI) inflation. These include the Ukraine war, Chinas property market collapse and the potential for more lethal variants of COVID-19. JOHANNESBURG/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Africa's central banks are walking a tightrope trying to curb inflation that is mostly out of their control and causing "horrifying" food insecurity, the International Monetary Fund's Africa head warned. Vanessa Nakate & Rachel Kyte trace the defining global crises of 2022 to the world's dependence on fossil fuels. The publisher's permission is required to reproduce the contents in any form. Sub-Saharan Africa gni for 2019 was $1,740.54B, a 5.89% increase from 2018. Moreover, the increase has been less dramatic than in other areas of the world for different reasons. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.4% in September (August: 5.0%). South African company registration: 1986/016729/23. Pressures on household incomes will remain predominant. Domestic demand has played a more limited role given the regions slow recovery. Progress has been painfully slow. The IMF outlook did not provide any projections on unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa, but it forecast an inflation rate of 12.2 percent for 2022 and 9.6 percent for 2023. Central banks responded and in most instances policy rates have been adjusted upward to stem the price pressures. The IMF has 22 programmes running in the region and has injected over US$50billion since COVID-19 into debt relief, emergency programmes and more. The IMF would not claim the port of Maputo as collateral, but someone like China might, Professor Bhorat said. Three UCT students showcase scientific solutions in Geneva. Maritz Publishing disclaims all liability for any loss, damage, injury or expense however caused, arising from the use of, or reliance upon, in any manner, the information provided through this service and does not warrant the truth, accuracy or completeness of the information provided. That has pushed countries including Ghana to request IMF bailouts and Selassie said work was still ongoing to determine if the West African country now needs debt relief. Ethiopia, Somalia and parts of Kenya are also on track for a fifth failed rainy season, with famine looming in Somalia. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Niger, Rwanda and South Sudan, along with the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius, are set to be sub-Saharan Africas fastest growing economies this year, with each expected to record GDP growth of 6% or higher, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections. Sub-Saharan Africa gni for 2018 was $1,643.66B, a 2.91% increase from 2017. Inflation in advanced economies will ultimately make Africa's food security crisis even more acute. Living on the Edge. Sub-Saharan Africa is the most food-insecure region in the world. Fiscal consolidation has a role to play in countries where policy is too loose, as can a combination of rate increases and currency depreciation. The average inflation rate has increased markedly, sometimes five-fold in some countries with harsh social and economic consequences. Senegal came in second position, closely following Ghana, with food price rises that reached 110%, and Uganda came in third with a 107% increase. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to pick up to 2.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.2 percent in 2018, predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. ", "Is everything working as timely, as speedily as we hoped? "I was in Chad (in May) and really the conditions that you saw there in terms of food security really are very, very horrifying.". Against the backdrop of rising food and energy prices globally, country risk and industry research company Fitch Solutions sub-Saharan Africa country risk head Jane Morley estimates that. The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. The biannual report, this time named Living on the Edge, foresees a dramatic slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region from a 2021 bounce-back of 4.7% to a predicted drop of over a percentage point to 3.6%, as a slowdown on advanced economies, coupled with tighter financial conditions, volatile commodity prices and soaring inflation across the globe, take their toll on a region already hard hit by COVID-19. Marijn Bolhuis , Peter Kovacs. Some 29 of 33 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa had inflation rates over 5 per cent. Professor Haroon Bhorat, the director of the Development Policy Research Unit at the School of Economics, talked of bridges of uncertainty spooking advanced economies and sparking inflation. There are some concerns that monetary policy could still be too accommodative, given that rate increases have not kept pace with inflation. Moreover, the increase has been less dramatic than in other areas of. All of this means an uncertain outlook for SSA. It also outlines short and medium-term policies that are needed to build a more food-secure region in future. Savings remain too low as countries juggle the weight of immediate needs. Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %) - Sub-Saharan Africa from The World Bank: Data We will pursue four main objectives in sub-Saharan Africa: 1. Ultimately, however, the regions safety and prosperity will require high-quality growth and the implementation of policies that will set the stage for a sustainable recovery, helping countries move away from the edge. Over the past year in the United States, there has been a 41 percent increase in energy prices and 30 percent increase in fertilizer. "This led to a dramatic reduction in inflation, at a time when inflation was rising in many other countries." Meanwhile, the projection said Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery has been abruptly interrupted, with this year's growth expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent. By Cytonn Research, Jul 10, 2022. Higher global energy prices and thestrong dollarhave also fed through to inflation indirectly, via transportation and tradable goods like household products. "The delay from Chad's creditors in approving much needed debt relief has been really very problematic," Selassie said in a press conference on Friday. Last year, activity finally bounced back, lifting GDP growth in 2021 to 4.7 percent. Research into Cape Town helicopter rescue missions mainstay for accident prevention strategies. The near-term outlook is extremely uncertain as the regions prospects are tied to developments in the global economy and with a number of countries facing difficult sociopolitical and security situations at home. What is needed is policy that builds a platform towards sustainable growth and away from the edge. But policymakers must also not be complacent: countries where domestic demand pressures are acute, or inflation is very high may need to tighten faster or more decisively. They need to fight fire, build resilience and move away from the edge. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2022 - more than one percentage point slower than 2021 mainly due to a worldwide slowdown, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity prices. REUTERS/Rogan Ward. Nations that are included in this data series are listed at http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups. The decline was largely attributable to the prevailing inflationary pressures with the inflation rate for the month of June coming in at 7.9%, from the 7.1% recorded in . So warned the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it launched its October2022 Regional Economic Outlook Report for Sub-Saharan Africa at UCTs School of Economics an honour to the school which plays a key role in the region, drawing some of the brightest economic minds on the continent, said director, Associate Professor Reza Daniels, in his welcome address. UCTs Nadia Davids and Jay Pather once again team up for the world premiere of David's latest play, Hold Still, at The Baxter in November. Customer Logins. Elevated cost pressures will begin to ease from Q2 2022. Chad's bilateral creditors said late Thursday that the country now did not need debt relief, given the surge in the price of crude oil, one of the country's major revenue earners. One of the most urgent issues confronting the region is the need to tackle decade-high levels of inflationwhich are devastating [] "It's a delicate balancing act that central banks face," Selassie said. While countries with exchange rates that are fixed or heavily managed have, so far, experienced lower inflation than those with more flexible regimes, their ability to control the pace of interest-rate increases is constrained by their currency arrangement. It also cut the GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, a significant drop from the 4.7% expansion in 2021, and has said Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe may all need to raise interest rates faster or more decisively. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. With food and energy accounting for half of household consumption in sub-Saharan Africa, living costs across the region have spiraled. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Most countries in the region have lacked the resources to support and stimulate growth, in sharp contrast to richer countries elsewhere that could inject trillions of dollars into their economies. Not only that, but public debt and inflation (15% to 20% in some cases) in the region are higher than they have been in 15years, while fiscal positions have deteriorated. Decades of fossil-fuel development have not served the 600 million people (a figure that continues to rise) in Sub-Saharan Africa who still lack . Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject. the University of Cape Town's terms of use. Sub-Saharan Africa's economic activity is expected to slow significantly in 2022 and remain relatively modest in 2023 and looking ahead, the outlook remains highly uncertain, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright 2022 Maritz Publishing. While, 17 countries had double-digit inflation as of July 2022. Outlook. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. Giorgia Meloni . "What worries us really is the fact that this is coming on top of all of the dislocation caused by the pandemic," the IMF's Abebe Selassie told Reuters this week. Marijn Bolhuis and Peter Kovacs Sub-Saharan Africa faces one of the most challenging economic environments in years, marked by a slow recovery from the pandemic, rising food and energy prices, and high levels of public debt. In sub-Saharan Africa, one item is driving the trend more than others: food prices. . Meanwhile, the tripartite relationship among FD, inflation and EG is particularly crucial for sub-Saharan African countries given that these countries are largely inflationary on the back of under-developed financial sectors and low EG. Rising regional debt is riding side by side with rising interest rates, now around 10% and projected to exceed 50% for most countries. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. Projections to 2050 show that much of sub-Saharan Africa will be unsustainable. November 7, 2022. "We want to make sure that the resources we provide will go to support Chad rather than address an unsustainable debt situation," he said, referring to a three-year, $570 million programme approved in December. Beyond the end of 2022, three factors could be a drag on growth: global deceleration, rising debt, and . Instead, external developments have shaped the path of inflation since the start of the pandemic. An intensification of the war in Ukraine or prolonged restrictions on Russian exports could add to the turmoil seen over the past year, putting additional upward pressure on food and energy prices in sub-Saharan Africa, exacerbating food affordability problems for the most vulnerable populations, and fueling social tensions. "Anything that exceeds what is a reasonable ask of the Zambians would be unfair to the people of Zambia," Selassie added. Sub-Saharan Africa Eurobond Performance 2022, & Cytonn Weekly #27/2022. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. According to figures from the Ghana Statistical. We have increased the region's overall inflation forecast for 2022 by 260. Because of this, the growth momentum for the region has weakened this year with economic activity expected to expand by 3.8 percent. . The IMF is waiting for the government to set out how it will address its debt, while a fund programme will also depend on how quickly Ghana implements planned economic reforms, Selassie said. Inflation is rising around the world. In 2022, it is estimated that inflation had reached 12.2 percent, marking the largest annual change. Today Southern Africa is shaped by the global economic environment, said Luc Eyraud, the head of Regional Studies at the IMFsAfrican Department, as he presented the reports findings. Sub-Saharan Africa gni for 2020 was $1,704.21B, a 2.09% decline from 2019. Singapore: Inflation stable in September. Inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa has regularly fluctuated since the year 2000. How do we save for tomorrow? Eyraud said. In its latest "Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa", the Washington-based fund projected that the region is likely to grow by 3.6% in 2022, down from 4.7% in 2021, given muted investment and overall worsening of its balance of trade. The rapid rise in global inflation, fuelled by an increase in energy and essential food prices, has put the squeeze on most households in the region and impacted hardest those who are most vulnerable. PUBLISHED: Fri, 14 Oct 2022 13:46:50 GMT . Patels cheetah locomotion study gets major funding boost. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the. A poll conducted in the past week showed growth for the sub-Saharan Africa region was expected to slow to 3.4% this year from last year's estimate of 4.7% but then edge up to 3.7% in 2023, in line with recent International Monetary Fund forecasts. Rapidly rising global interest rates mean that sub-Saharan Africa's most heavily-indebted countries have effectively lost access to the international capital markets. In sub-Saharan Africa, one item is driving the trend more than others: food prices. Given sub-Saharan Africas fragile recovery, combined with the fact that domestic demand pressures have not so far been an important driver of inflation, policymakers must proceed with caution in coming months while closely monitoring inflation. The Sub-Saharan Africa outlook shows that multi-speed recovery will continue into 2022. While 17 countries had double-digit inflation, 29 of the 33 sub-Saharan African countries for which information is available had inflation rates in excess of 5% as of July 2022. Inflation becomes the leading global concern in 2022 In sub-Saharan Africa, inflation has been driven less by domestic activity than in advanced economies. That compares to around 82 million people . "Whether in Europe, where inflation has hit a record high of 10 percent, or sub-Saharan Africa, where food prices have surged by nearly 24 percent, household budgets across the world are being stretched beyond breaking point," he said. Sub-Saharan Africa's economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. Sub-Saharan Africas recovery has been abruptly interrupted. This page provides values for Inflation Rate reported in several countries part of Africa. The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists. Looking ahead to 2023, Senegal (8.1% GDP growth), DRC (6.7%), Rwanda (6.7%), Cte dIvoire (6.5%), Benin (6.2%) and Togo (6.2%) are anticipated to be the regions best performers. 2021's inflation spike (that has sapped profitability) will gradually give way to moderately lower cost and price pressures in . Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery has been abruptly interrupted. 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That compares to around 82 million people affected before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the hammer blow of the virus, spillovers from the war in Ukraine as well as worsening unrest and drought in parts of the continent have seen the numbers spiral. The importance of growth goes a long way., Enter the IMF. But growth in 2022 is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks. The tentative recovery the sub-Saharan region (SSA) enjoyed in the wake of the pandemic is set to teeter into retreat as global economic instability impacts key vulnerabilities within the region. Within this challenging environment, policymakers must confront immediate socioeconomic crises. is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks. How we made it in Africa is published by Maritz Publishing CC. A saving of even 5% of GDP creates a buffer against future shock. However, rising. Growth is expected to slow this year by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6%, as a worldwide slowdown and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into the region. Food inflation increased throughout 2019, on average, across 20 countries in the region where monthly food price data are available. 2022 International Monetary Fund. As finalists of a competition, three UCT students flew to Geneva for a summit that linked them with top science innovators. Ethiopia's restructuring has been delayed by ongoing civil war, although IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said this week she hoped both Zambia and Chad's processes would now be finished by the end of the year. The Muddled Politics of US Inflation. The question is how? Debt has increased significantly in the last decade from 30% of GDP to 60%, he said, and a third of SSA countries have debt greater than 70% of GDP. With growing needs and less policy space, policymakers must strike a delicate balance, said Eyraud. Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa was set to reach 12.2 percent in 2022, after increasing steadily from 2020 onwards. Meanwhile, fiscal consolidation and the global slowdown weigh on domestic economic activity. Against this backdrop, and with limited options, many countries find themselves pushed closer to the edge. He warned that more African countries might need to restructure their debt. In thecase of food, theprices of key staplessuch as maize and wheat have increased since 2019, contributing two-thirds of overall inflation in fragile states and one-half elsewhere in the region. While there are big differences between countries, the median of inflation rates in the region increased to almost 9 percent in August. Access unmatched financial data, news and content in a highly-customised workflow experience on desktop, web and mobile. "If global conditions persist," he said, "There will be some countries that will require debt reprofiling.". Africa's inflation set to rise in 2022 Increases in consumer prices vary widely among countries in Africa. Last year, activity finally bounced back, lifting GDP growth in 2021 to 4.7 percent. 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